AI promised hiring growth: in Russia the effect was not confirmed

A February 2026 study by Ramp Economics Lab (Kharazian, Simon & Stevens) analyzed payments of 21,500 US companies to AI vendors and found that firms spending more on generative AI subsequently increased headcount faster than similar firms. The author attempted to replicate this in Russia using open government data (hh.ru vacancies, tax authority reports) instead of payment data. About 9,000 AI-related vacancies from 1,076 companies were identified and matched with control firms. The Russian results differ: intensive AI adopters show no significant hiring difference from controls, while casual adopters grow about 15% slower (p=0.052). This is attributed to Russia's ultra-low unemployment and tight labor market in 2023-2024, where AI becomes a replacement for unavailable workers rather than a complement. Additionally, intensive adopters were already high-growth before the generative AI wave (2018-2021), and the strongest hiring after 2022 occurred in the most profitable firms (slack-driven hiring). The US finding that AI adoption leads to faster hiring does not hold in Russia; instead, AI adoption signals financial slack, not growth trajectory.