Business & Market 🇷🇺 02.08.2026 10:01

AI at 300 Hours? The Estimate Is Below the Industry Floor: A Three-Method Cross-Check

An IT specialist's estimate of 300 hours for a business accounting system upgrade was challenged by the client, who claimed AI could do it in an evening. The specialist recalculated the scope using three independent methods, revealing his own estimate was below the lowest industry benchmarks. The 412 function points would actually take between ~990 (low-code 90th percentile) and ~12,400 hours (COCOMO II nominal), according to ISBSG data.

An IT specialist estimated 300 hours to finalize an accounting system, but the client rejected it, saying AI can do it in an evening. To verify, the specialist calculated the same scope using three independent methods: bottom-up by user actions, function points with ISBSG industry productivity benchmarks, and COCOMO II. The result inverted expectations: according to industry statistics, the 412 function points are worth from ~990 hours (90th percentile low-code projects in the ISBSG repository) to ~3,600 hours (median Java projects there) and up to ~12,400 hours by nominal COCOMO II. His original estimate of 300 hours is 0.73 hours per function point, below the minimum of the entire low-code sample. The article details the breakdown: 40 UI surfaces, 77 API endpoints, 90 user actions, and a sensitivity analysis. It also addresses the 'do it yourself with AI' argument, citing the '70% problem' from Eddie Osman (Google Chrome DX) and studies showing AI-generated code often has quality and security issues, such as the CVE-2025-48757 vulnerability affecting over 170 production apps.

Сокращения: ISBSG = International Software Benchmarking Standards Group — Международная группа стандартов бенчмаркинга ПО; COCOMO = Constructive Cost Model — Конструктивная модель стоимости; API = Application Programming Interface — Программный интерфейс приложения; S3 = Simple Storage Service — Простейший сервис хранения; PWA = Progressive Web App — Прогрессивное веб-приложение; CRUD = Create, Read, Update, Delete — Создание, чтение, обновление, удаление; IFPUG = International Function Point Users Group — Международная группа пользователей функциональных точек; ILF = Internal Logical File — Внутренний логический файл; EIF = External Interface File — Внешний интерфейсный файл; EI = External Input — Внешний ввод; EO = External Output — Внешний вывод; EQ = External Query — Внешний запрос; FP = Function Point — Функциональная точка; UFP = Unadjusted Function Point — Нескорректированная функциональная точка; VAF = Value Adjustment Factor — Фактор корректировки значения; TDI = Total Degree of Influence — Суммарная степень влияния; CI/CD = Continuous Integration / Continuous Delivery — Непрерывная интеграция / непрерывная поставка; CVE = Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures — Общие уязвимости и воздействия; ICSE = International Conference on Software Engineering — Международная конференция по программной инженерии; SEIP = Software Engineering in Practice — Программная инженерия на практике; ISO = International Organization for Standardization — Международная организация по стандартизации; IEC = International Electrotechnical Commission — Международная электротехническая комиссия; UI = User Interface — Пользовательский интерфейс; DX = Developer Experience — Опыт разработчика

Source: Habr — хаб ИИ — original