Russian AI Market Exceeds 316 Billion Rubles as It Begins to Accelerate

According to a report by CNews and the Kommersant newspaper, the Russian artificial intelligence market grew by 29.7% in 2025 and reached 316.1 billion rubles, doubling since 2023. The largest segment by revenue is AI hardware, accounting for 31.1% of the market, while the B2B sector is the main consumer with 71.9% of revenue. The analytics agency AIANA forecasts that in a base scenario the market will grow to 830 billion rubles by 2030, in an optimistic scenario to 1.12 trillion rubles, and in a conservative scenario to 582 billion rubles. The conservative scenario assumes higher key interest rates, increased sanctions, and limited access to foreign computing resources, which would raise costs and slow adoption. Experts also note a shift from developing AI models to applied AI solutions such as AI agents and virtual employees, but the main constraints are a shortage of IT skills, limited access to computing infrastructure, and a small venture capital market compared to the US. Industry analysts believe the Russian AI market is unlikely to gain a notable global share in the near term due to geopolitical factors, but it could become fully sovereign and significant in key industrial and corporate AI solutions locally.